Nuclear Power Output Drops, More Units Enter Refueling Cycle

Western US Hydro Power Status: The Drought Has Yet to Manifest

The expected drought-driven decline in hydro power output in the Pacific states this spring should begin to present in the next month.  Snow pack has increased in the Northwest, as well as more rain in California.  The Colorado River basin is also showing above average snow for this date.

Meanwhile, an apparently minor defect was detected in a Columbia River dam last week, requiring a partial draw down in head.  

Recall that CAISO and BPA are the two primary administration regions that contain the hydro power capacity that is in question this spring and summer.  CAISO is much the smaller of the two.  Thus far this year, CAISO has been running behind last year in hydro output by about 45%, or roughly 20 GWh per day.  Meanwhile, BPA has tracked last year closely, rising above 2013 in the last three days.  But the real drama is still perhaps a month away.  Below are the dailies, with a 7 day moving average line:

Electricity Price Trends: Two Extremes of California and Texas

For many reasons, power prices have been rising in California and falling in Texas, and the disparity is now substantial.  These are weighted average retail rates to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.  On-grid demand has also been falling in California, and flat to up in Texas in the last few years (weather adjusted).  

These two states may present test cases for the impact of renewables, and perhaps also the impact of stagnating demand.  California also represents the vanguard of grid defection potential, given its high insolation and high retail rates.

EIA Monthly Natural Gas Demand: Dec 2013

There were few surprises on the demand side for December 2013.  Natural gas for power generation was up 2 BCFD over the prior December, and the weather sensitive Industrial Demand component was also up about 2 BCFD, probably on a mix of strengthening fundamentals and weather.

NOAA Heating Degree Days: Last Week +44 HDD above normal, Forecast Week +41

The extreme cold persisted for another week, and the forecast is for more of the same in NOAA Week 10:

The monthly results for February also establish it as the coldest monthly anomaly in three years, at +78 HDD: