Midwest Power Generation Finally Shifts in Favor of Natural Gas Over Coal

MISO region fuel mix has never seen a day with gas fired generation exceeding coal until this month.  Over the last three years, coal output has exceeded gas by more than 5 BCFED at times.  Here is the daily amount by which coal generation exceeded gas since 2016:

The 7 day average GW output from coal and gas this year:

And the gas/coal relationship from a market share perspective, over the past 4 Aprils, shows a substantial increase for gas over prior years:

Final Verdict on Winter: Slightly Colder Than Average

The cumulative Heating Degree Day Anomaly stands at +67 for the Oct 1 - April 25 period (including the current 7-day forecast).  That totals about 4,518 HDDs, so it's a mere 1.5% more than normal. 

After a mild October, a sharp cold snap quickly raised the anomaly to about +130 by early December, sending gas prices up sharply but briefly.  Henry Hub Spot hit a November high of $4.69, then fell to $3.10 in late December.

Western US Hydroelectric Power: Expect Less from 2019 Runoff

Most west coast hydro comes from the Pacific Northwest, in the Bonneville Power Administration.  Thusfar in '19, output has been far far below 2018, averaging 7.7 GW vs. 11.0 GW in '18.  That's about 2/3 of a BCFD in gas equivalent.

Snowpack suggests these reduced flows will continue.  As of 4/18, Washington snowpack was 82% of average, while last year on this date it was 128%.

There is less hydro potential in California, but snowpack is much healthier.  It sits at 199% of normal, vs. 73% last year.

See the snowpack table from the NRCS here.

ERCOT Power Generation: Microcosm of Natural Gas Demand

Texas is the most dynamic power generation market in the US.  It has growing demand, and a changing generation mix, with renewables leading the field.  Here's a low resolution look at the monthly data back to 2012, showing that gas is displacing coal, but that fossil fuel (coal+gas) generation is losing market share.

PEMEX Oil Production Declines Continue

PEMEX ended the year just above its 3 year low in crude production, at 1.7 Million BOPD in December.  That's a 600K BPOD decline over the previous three years:

Declines in 2018 have been concentrated in offshore production, with marine crude output down from about 1.6 to 1.4 MMBOPD.  But proportional declines are evident in both the south and north region as well:

On a brighter note, natural gas output continues to show stabilization over 2018 after a multi-year decline: