EIA Revises Down Natural Gas Supply Projections

In the May 2019 Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA reduced it's dry gas production estimates for the balance of 2019 and all of 2020.  The largest revisions occur in summer and autumn of 2019, where output is seen down about 1 BCFD from the April issue.

Nevertheless, estimates of injection season peak inventories rose slightly for both 2019 and 2020.

ERCOT Air Conditioning: Power Generation per Degree Day in May

Electricity demand growth has been generally robust in Texas for some time now, but the beginning of cooling season is indicating lower power consumption per degree day in May.  Eight days of data are not conclusive, but the load requirements are significantly lower than '18 so they are worth watching.  The trend line indicates loads down 8% or more through the 8th of May:

ERCOT Power: Gas Gains in April, But Carbon Loses

Natural Gas used for power generation in the ERCOT region (most of Texas) gained more market share over coal in April, but carbon based fuels in total (coal+gas) lost market. 

 In April, the gas/coal balance rose to 67.6% gas, 32.4% coal.  This is an April record, up from 65.9% in March, and up 6.2% over the previous April:

Against that, gas and coal were vying for an ever smaller share of the total power pie, with total carbon generation falling to 59.2% of the total load, a new record low.  The main culprits here is wind, which continues to grow faster than total demand, achieving a new record of 9.93 GW of average output in April, which was about 26.7% of the entire power market. 

Gas Gaining Market Share Over Coal in Southern Power Pool

With total loads steady, and wind output falling over the last two weeks, gas has taken up the slack in SPP, pushing fossil fuel market share well above 50% lately.  The current year in red (with a 7 day average line) shows substantial gains on 2018.   SPP isn't an especially large consumer of gas however, so large percentage gains translate into less than an incremental 1 BCFD. 

Western Canada Natural Gas Production in 2019 Tracking 2018

Western Canada's TC Nova Pipeline System reports daily output comparable to last year.  Output briefly fell below trend in February, but quickly recovered.  Scheduled maintenance, combined with seasonal drops in rig counts, drove down output in late April and early May, again mirroring 2018.