Cooling Loads Rising in Early Summer

A minor heat wave this week should begin to indicate how the increase in base load gas fired generation will translate into summer NG demand.  Most forecasts are for power generation demand to exceed 40 BCFD in July and August.  EIA is currently at 41:

Weather has been near average since April 1, but CDD's are forecast to rise to around 130% of seasonal norms this week, and the first real heat of the year:

The NCEP historicals and 7 day forecast:

Overall electrical loads have been very low up to now, though gas market share has been up in most regions.  Spot prices are up slightly, but comparable to 2018:

Hydro Recovers in the Northwest

Runoff in the Pacific Northwest surged in the last ten days, coincident with an increase in power exports to California.

Southern Power Pool: Gas Fired Power Up 15-25% Over 2018

Thus far in May, Southern Power Pool reports the gas/coal mix at about 50%, up from last year's 40-45%:

Gasoline Demand Flat Year on Year

Domestic gasoline demand, as reported in today's EIA Weekly Petroleum Balance Sheet, was well below last week, bringing the YTD average down below 2018 by 0.3%:

California Energy Demand is Tepid Year-to-Date

California (CAISO) electric load has been lagging 2018 thus far in 2019. 

Weather demand was higher than '18 through Feb, and then weakened to an average of 2 degree days below prior year until now. 

Nevertheless, cooling demand is too low to indicate a meaningful change in the relationship between degree days and demand, since cooling matters much more than heating in California: