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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Residential Electricity Demand: Steadily Declining Per Capita

The EIA breaks out electricity demand into 3 main sectors (Commercial, Industrial, Residential). 
Only residential has a steadily growing customer count, growing at a slightly lower rate than the US population.  Nevertheless, the customer count is growing faster than power demand growth, indicating a steadily decreasing demand per customer. 

This could be an efficiency story, and urbanization story, or something else.  And the magnitude is small, but still negative.  And it's the most positive demand sector.


Monday, May 27, 2019

Pemex April Production: Oil Declines on Trend, Gas Output Plateaus

Pemex reported oil and gas production for April, showing crude output declining by 15K BOPD from March, and gas down 41MMCFD.



Regionally, oil declines were entirely offshore, with southern onshore output flat, and output rising slightly in the terrestrial north:



Gas output was flat regionally, but nitrogen associated output rose and oil associated NG fell slightly:


Friday, May 24, 2019

MISO Region: Coal Re-takes Market Share from Gas, But Gas Still Outperforming 2018

Very briefly, gas overtook coal in late April, but coal-fired power generation has risen against gas since then.



Never the less, on a total carbon demand basis, gas is averaging about 8 points higher than 2018 in May.  Unfortunately, total load in the system has been well below the prior year, so we have not seen this curve tested at summer heat loads yet:



Thursday, May 23, 2019

US Gasoline Demand Stalling

This week's EIA Petroleum Balance Sheet showed more weakness in Motor Gasoline Product Supplied, with the 4 week average down 1.1% from '18, and the YTD number off by 0.4%.

Dampening some of the weekly noise in the data, here are the 52 and 13 week averages, showing a slight YOY deficit since last Autumn:



Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Drilling Permit Applications in Texas Still Outpacing Well Completions in April


The April Drilling, Completion, and Plugging Report from the Texas Railroad Commission showed permit applications for April at 909 vs 775 wells completed.  Permits have been gradually declining since last summer, with significant monthly variability, but still higher than new well completions.