Pemex: MARCH Oil and Gas Production Show Steady Gas Output, Further Oil Declines

Pemex daily oil production fell by 7K in March to 1.069 MMBOPD, on trend to cross 1.5 MMBOPD by year end.  Gas was down minimally, to 4.857 BCFD, continuing a 6 quarter streak of almost level output. 

Light and Extra-light oil output is down the most over a 3 year period, in percentage terms. From a regional perspective, marine, and southern onshore, have been declining the most.

Gas output details reveal onshore decline trends, with marine output recovering erratically over the last year:

Coal Power Decline in Southern Power Pool

Coal-fired power in SPP (Southern Power Pool) declined sharply in March-April.  Here is the Year-on-Year comparison for both coal and gas fired power.  While gas is taking a much larger market share of fossil fuel generation now, the net effect has not yet resulted in more gas use because total load is down, wind generation is up, and nuclear is also up.

Marcellus Rig Count Hovers Near Highs, at 62 This Week

Many are predicting an end to the steady production growth from PA, but with rig counts near all time highs, and longer laterals every year, this does not seem likely. 

The April 15th EIA Drilling Report on the Appalachia Region shows the continuation of a trend that has reshaped the north american gas market:

Natural Gas Storage Continues Recovery

Natural Gas Inventory rose +92 BCF last week, continuing its aggressive recovery.  It's a shocking contrast to last year's 34 BCF DRAW.  This build brings the deficit to the 5 year average down to -369B, after bottoming out at -565B about eight weeks ago.  

The consensus is for a strong early injection season, then quickly weakening as exports (primarily LNG) ramp up in the latter half of the year.  

Alaska North Slope Crude Oil Production: Steadily Declining at 4%+

With maintenance season approaching, crude output on the north slope continues a steady long term decline.

The trailing 12 month average is down more than 20K over the last year, breaking through 500K BPOD this week:

Daily output fluctuates a lot, especially in Summer, but the trend is visible: