Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Western US Hydro Power Outperforming Last Summer

Despite the drought conditions prevailing in the Southwest, a combination of low flows last year and better hydrological conditions in the Pac NW is resulting in higher electric generation than 2013.

California's daily hydro output is marginally below 2013:

Meanwhile the much more powerful Columbia river is driving higher output up north recently:

May 2014 Electric Power Monthly

US power generation in May was comparable to last year, at 10.42 vs 10.39 GWhD.  Weather was comparable, as '14 had +9CDD and -10HDD vs '13.
Electric Power Monthly

By feedstock, there were slight absolute losses for coal, and a 5% gain for natural gas.  Nuclear was off slightly, as were renewables.

Hydropower fell to a 4 year low, down 8% over '13, and solar hit another high in what should be another year of uninterrupted monthly records.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Mexico Oil and Gas Production: Drastic Oil Declines in June

Mexican oil production took a steep dive in June, falling more than 50K BOPD vs prior month, to a modern low of 2,796 MBOPD.  Losses were concentrated in heavy oil, and offshore, production.

Natural gas production was steady, at about 6.5 BCFD.

Weather Unsupportive for Natural Gas

National cooling demand looks to be lower than normal for the third week in a row, and the mid-range forecast does not look much better.  The primary gas consuming states are all above average this week however (with the exception of Louisiana).

Monday, July 7, 2014

More Heat Forecast for Current Week, Last Week Cooler than Expected

Well, last week's forecast for major heat did not materialize.  Actuals came in much lower than forecast, at 73CDD.  The current week is expected to be warmer than normal, at 85 CDD vs a normal of 71.
Cooling Degree Day Report

On a state by state basis for the major gas consuming states, Florida and California look warm, with Texas and Louisiana near normal.

Strong Nuclear Power Output Offsetting Natural Gas Demand

With all but one nuclear reactor generating near 100% today, output is surpassing last year for the tenth day in a row, averaging nearly 1/2 BCF of natural gas demand offset.  This differential should shrink over the next two months, since output cannot improve much from here.  The nuclear fleet is performing near perfectly, and barring unplanned outages should help suppress natural gas demand this summer.
Nuclear Power Report

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Wind Generation in Texas (ERCOT Region)

The month of June ended with very steady and strong wind generation in Texas, as output held near 9,000 MW for four days straight.  That helped June average 5.45 GW of wind output, vs 4.70 GW last year and 3.66 GW in 2012.

With significant additional generating resources installed at the beginning of the year, output should reflect that capacity growth through the summer, though July-Sep is historically low.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: +100 BCF (Near Expectations)

While today's storage injection of 100 BCF did not surprise, gas prices did, rising about 4 to 5 cents after the news:
Natural Gas Weekly Storage Report

Storage comparisons tightened considerably, as the deficit to the 5 year average shrank by 32 BCF to a -790 BCF level, and storage is now 666 BCF below last year, declining by 24 BCF this week.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Western Canada: Natural Gas Production and Storage Rebounding

June has seen Alberta NG production spike after a maintenance curtailment, and is currently running 800MMCF above last year.  This is helping storage recover, despite exports to the US that match 2013.