Texas Well Completions Fall 245 to a New Low in April

Total oil and gas well permit activity ticked up in April, but New Well Completions fell by 245 to a new low of 820 in April, as reported by the Texas Railroad Commission.

Mexico Oil and Gas Production Hits Era Lows in April

Pemex reported gas and liquids production for April 2016 yesterday, revealing declines in both that set low watermarks for the 21st century.

Liquids production was down 29K barrels per day, from 2.507 MM to 2.478MM month on month.

Gas output also fell off, from 6.03 BCFD in March to 5.921 BCFD in April.

Shale Gas Decline Case: The Barnett Shale

The Barnett Shale in north Texas offers an interesting example of the natural decline rates for gas when drilling is effectively curtailed.  Rig counts have been very low for years now, and the play now consists primarily of cohorts of old wells, long past the initial hyperbolic decline rates characteristic of the first year of shale production from horizontals.

The Texas Railroad Commission collects and reports the data, and typically takes about six months before the data is close to final, so 2016 numbers have to be considered incomplete.

Nevertheless, a look at production from the 4 core counties of the Barnett since 2013 indicates a fairly steady decline rate developing, which averages about 11%.  If that were to continue through 2016, another 0.3 to 0.4 BCFD would be subtracted from north American production by end of year.

Southwestern Energy's most recent quarterly call seemed to corroborate this in the Fayetteville Shale, where they have been running zero rigs, and saw a Q4 '15 decline over Q4 '14 of 125BCF to 112BCF.  No more detail was given, presumably they did complete some wells in 2015, but the raw numbers indicate a 10.4% decline YOY.

Alaska North Slope Oil Production Reverses 25 year decline in 2016

For the first time since 1990, Alaska north slope oil production has increased year-on-year.  It is up about 1% in the Jan-Apr 2016 period over the same interval in 2015, despite some early maintenance that took much of the area offline in late April.  The slope still only produces about 25% of its peak production, which occurred around 1990.

Last year, Jan-Apr averaged 531K BOPD, and this year it grew to 535.5K.

The primary field level drivers were Kuparuk and Alpine, which saw large % increases in Feb-Apr of this year.

Natural Gas Prices Collapse on Mild Weather Forecast

Front month natural gas prices fell more than 13 cents to $2.04 today as the weather forecast was revised milder, particularly in the eastern half of the US.

The  6- 10 Day Forecast:


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The 8 - 14 Day Forecast:

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