PEMEX Oil Production Declines Continue

PEMEX ended the year just above its 3 year low in crude production, at 1.7 Million BOPD in December.  That's a 600K BPOD decline over the previous three years:

Declines in 2018 have been concentrated in offshore production, with marine crude output down from about 1.6 to 1.4 MMBOPD.  But proportional declines are evident in both the south and north region as well:

On a brighter note, natural gas output continues to show stabilization over 2018 after a multi-year decline:

Expanded ERCOT Wind Power Capacity Delivering Strong Output in February

At the halfway point in February, wind output in ERCOT is averaging 10.4 GW, nearly 2.2 GW above the Feb '18 average.  Should that average hold, it represents about 58BCF of natural gas equivalent for the month, an increase of 12BCF from 2018. 

On an hourly basis, the month-to-date output profile looks like this:

This represents a significant negative impact on natural gas demand.  Particularly true considering that heating degree days in Texas are lagging behind last year:

Gas should continue to gain market share from coal, but the carbon-based fuel demand is an ever shrinking piece of the pie in a state with such a large and growing wind capacity. 

January '19 did represent a new milestone for natural gas, with NG at 65.8% market share of carbon-based generation in ERCOT, against a Jan '18 level of 57.6% and a Jan '17 level of 45.6%.