Western Canadian Gas Production Tracking Last Year

Pipeline receipts in Alberta are similar (on a monthly average basis) to 2018 levels. 
Daily storage injections were strong in April, but have declined comparatively since then.

Upcoming EIA Gas Storage Reports

After a fourth consecutive EIA Natural Gas Storage Report showing injections in excess of last year, and The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook now pointing to a 3.8 TCF storage carryout, a glance at the upcoming weekly comparisons is in order.  

Yesterday's report revealed a +189 BCF storage surplus over 2018.  That would grow to over +500 BCF by end of season if the EIA projections prove out.  This translates to an average of about +15BCF per week for the remainder of the season.  

With nuclear outages running at about 1BCFED and falling, and hydro beginning to fade in the PNW, the onset of summer should be constructive for NG.  Next calendar week should begin the first week of near-normal summer weather, with the first empirical glimpse at the coal/gas balance at higher loads.  The shoulder season curves show big gains for gas vs 2018.

Slow Start to Summer Electricity Demand

Some heat is on deck along both seaboards and the deep south, but thus far in June, weather has been anomalously mild and power loads reflect that.

Here are the dailies for several key ISO's, compared with last year:

And NOAA shows the weak climatic beginning to June, after a slightly above normal May.

Texas Oil and Gas Drilling and Permitting Both Rebound in May

The Texas Railroad Commission released statistics for May 2019 today, showing a month-on-month rise in drilling permits and well completions, with permits outpacing completions for the sixth straight month.

Permits rose from 909 to 1,050, and completions were up from 775 to 931.

ERCOT Natural Gas Demand up in May, in Volume and Market Share

Total generation in the ERCOT region in May was down about 5% year-on-year.  But a decline in nuclear output left a bit more market share to fossil fuels (up from 66.5% last May to 67.0% this May).  And gas took more of that from coal.  Last year the split was 2/3 gas, 1/3 coal, and this year gas edged up to 68.7% against coal's 31.3%. 


33.7 vs 32.0

In BCFE terms, gas demand was 4.76 BCFED, out of a total fossil fuel demand of 6.9 BCFED.  That's above the 2019 poly line, and about 21% above last year's line:

MISO Gas-Fired Power Generation Gains Market Share in June

As in PJM region, MISO is showing strong year-on-year gains for gas over coal in the first week of June.  The slope of the line has yet to be tested by high summer loads, but the data points are clustering tightly around a 45-47% line, which represents increases of around 25% more gas when compared to similar load levels in 2018:

Recall that in late April, Gas briefly overtook coal in total generation:

Strong Start to Natural Gas Power Burn in PJM Region in June

Total system load in PJM has been low for June 1-3, but gas is taking almost 2/3 of fossil fuel based power burn, up from about 51% in June '18.  With more heat on deck, the gas/coal balance will soon be tested.