Cooling Requirements Rise This Week: 50% Above Normal

Last week was not as warm as forecast.  It came in near normal at 15 CDD vs 12 normal.  But the current week ending Saturday sees a sharp rise to 23 CDD vs 15 normal, enough to generate electric power demand that will be noticed.

Among the major gas consuming states, the larger anomalies for the current week are seen in Texas and Louisiana:

Heating Degree Days: Above Normal Again Last Week, But Warmer Outlook

Last week's weather was cooler than originally forecast, delivering the 13th cold anomaly of the year (out of 18 weeks).  This brings the net anomaly for 2014 to +220 Heating Degree Days (gas weighted).  

Degree Day Report

Last week was just +4 above average, but +19 above last year.  The forecast week through May 10 is expected to be -18 HDD, much warmer than normal but only 5 HDD less than 2013.

The month of April finished slightly warmer than average, 15 HDD short of normal.

Rig Counts: US Oil down 7 at 1,527 US Gas Flat at 323

Rig counts were stable across North America this week, as U.S. oil rig counts fell by 7 in total but added 3 horizontal rigs.  U.S. Gas rigs were flat in aggregate, down 1 horizontal.

Canadian rig counts are bottoming out seasonally, with oil rigs flat year-on-year but gas rigs almost double their 2013 level.

Rig Count Summary

Rig Count by Basin

Rig Count by State

Canada Rig Counts

California Solar Generation Offsets Hydro Shortage

The well publicized hydro power shortage in California this year, owing to the historic drought, has reduced hydro power output by about 50% so far this year over last year (which was also lower than normal).  But so much new solar has been installed in California in the last 12 months, that the increase in solar output has nearly offset the losses in hydro.

Here are the two in comparison.  On top, the daily increase in solar output vs 2013.  On bottom, the daily shortfall in hydro output.  Both are on the same scale (0-40 GWh per day).

EIA Natural Gas Inventory: 82 BCF Injection

For the week ended 4/25, storage facilities injected 82 BCF, more than expected.  Front month contract prices fell about 5 cents initially on the report.

Natural Gas Weekly Storage Report

This improves the relative storage levels against last year and the 5 year average, but the deficit is still substantial and not likely to improve much in the next two weeks.  As of this report, inventories are 984 BCF lower than the 5 year average and 790 BCF below last year.