Changes in Coal vs Natural Gas Power Generation

This chart requires some explanation.  I've taken each day's total thermal generation (gas + coal) in the MISO region, and calculated the BCF equivalence.  I then graph this against the natural gas market share of that day's thermal generation.  

There is a polynomial line calculated from the daily data points for each month of winter this year.

What it all means:

• At every level of thermal power generation, the nat gas share of that generation declined in each subsequent month.  For example, at 10 BCFE of thermal generation, gas had 35% share of that in November, 21% in December, 18% in January, and then finally recovering a bit to 24% so far in February.  
• This is an attempt to delineate the impact of the rising price of gas through the winter, and now the recent decline as well.  Gas was pretty cheap last November, around $2.75.  Now that gas is settling back to $2.90's, we should see the beginnings of a recovery in market share.  We are, but not in a quick and radical way yet.  There may be latency, or there may be other issues, like gas still too expensive.  

Mild Weather Outlook Puts This Winter Equal to Last Winter in Low Heating Requirements

The 7 day forecast from NOAA puts the Oct-Mar heating degree day count 19 below last year, and a whopping 388 HDD's below normal.

Natural Gas Inventory Falls 87 BCF

Near Record CONUS Warmth Dims Natural Gas Demand Outlook for Feb

The charts say it all.  If the forecast does not moderate, the end of season storage target will rise sharply:

Western Canada Finishes January Trending Higher in NG Production, Storage Lower

Alberta's TC Nova system exited January at 11.3 BCFD in pipeline receipts, which was comparable to 2016 and resulted in a monthly average of 11.1 BCFD, which was about 0.1 BCFD below last year.

In 2016, the system reported its annual high production in February, exceeding 11.4 BCFD.  The higher rig count over the past year should help 2017 beat that production average if weather is cooperative.  

Stronger demand, both for exports and domestic consumption, has led to larger storage withdrawals this January vs last.  The month ended with 33.3 BCF withdrawn, vs 21.3 BCF last year, resulting in a diminution of the surplus in storage with which the year began.

The close up view: