MISO: Gas Market Share of Thermal Generation = Down from 42% Last April to 34% This April

Much higher natural gas prices this year have made gas less competitive against coal in the MISO region.  MISO publishes excellent daily fuel mix statistics, unfortunately they also show that total load is down about 7% so far in April.  Most of that generation loss has been offset by declines in wind and nuclear output, but on average the wind will blow again, and nuclear power will return from maintenance.

Here's total output vs last year, for the last six months.  Load has been below the prior year in all but one month (December 2016).

ERCOT Reports March Fuel Mix

ERCOT's Demand and Energy Report for March 2017 was released yesterday.  It shows natural gas gained against coal:

But it also shows that the thermal power pie continues to shrink:

One big reason, besides low/no demand growth, is wind.  A big new generation record was set in March:

Texas Drilling and Permit Activity: Drilling Steady, Permitting Way Up

Completions have not yet accelerated, but permitting really took off in March, per the Texas Railroad Commission Drilling, Completion, and Permitting Report for March 2017:

Permits issued in March rose to 1,233 from about 930 in each of the three previous months (Mostly Oil permits, fewer Oil+Gas permits, and very few Gas permits:

Only 63 gas wells were completed in March.  Oil activity was much greater, at 475 new well completions, but still well below March 2016 (876 completions).

CONUS Winter a Bust. Now Almost 600 HDD's Below Normal

With winter drawing to a close in the continental US, the final verdict is very, vary warm.  Since Oct 1, we are nearly 600 HDD's below normal, and if next week's forecast holds, we will be on par with last year's warmth.

Nuclear Capacity Factor Drops Sharply, Requiring 1.5 BCFD+ of Extra Gas Power Burn

Substantial new outages over the weekend have resulted in a decline of over 3% in nuclear power output from Friday, and it equates to over 1.5 BCFD of gas replacement vs this date last year: