PEMEX Oil and Gas Production August 2018

Despite ongoing attempts to reform the energy industry in Mexico, August crude oil output fell by 25KBOPD from July, and 114K vs last July.

Natural gas output has stabilized over the past year, after a long decline, at 4.9 BCFD.

September results are expected on October 26th.

Wind Power Growth Keeping Pace with Aggregate Demand Growth in ERCOT Region

Texas is one of the few power markets that has seen steady demand growth since the financial crisis.  But wind output has grown by about the same gross output in the last four years, such that the net demand for carbon-fueled generation hasn't grown. 

Consequently, fossil fuel market share is down 8 points over this same time frame:

And finally, a look at the trade off between gas and coal in the JAN-SEP period of '17 and '18, showing a shift upward by about 0.8 BCFD for natural gas at a given carbon-fired power demand.

Texas Railroad Commission Reports Rise in Drilling Permits for June '17

The Texas RRC released its drilling, completion, and permitting statistics for June this week.  Total new permits topped 1,200 for only the second time in years, with combo (oil+gas) and oil wells leading the charge.  Gas well permits were also up, but only represented 70 of the permits issued.

It's notable that new well completions still have not begun to follow the upward trend in permitting.  Whether that is tardy reporting, or maybe DUC count is rising, it suggests that unless many of these permits are being delayed or abandoned, we will eventually witness a surge in completions, and therefore production.

Gas new-drill completions reported in June were just 68, and oil completions were 446:

Western Hydropower Surplus Fading Quickly

The record snowfalls and subsequent runoff in the Pacific Northwest has led to massive electrical output this year, but the effect is wearing off suddenly and quickly.

In June, the surplus generation over 2016 was equivalent to about 1 BCFD of natural gas.  But June's average hydro output of 12.8 GW has fallen to 8.6 GW as of yesterday, and should generally decline further throughout the month.  

This should reduce exports to California, which would in turn increase thermal generation there.  Thermal output in CAISO has been badly lagging prior years up to now:

Nuclear Power Closes Output Gap

Electricity output from nuclear power plants fell below 2016 levels in mid March, and the gap has averaged more than 1 BCF of natural gas equivalent since then.  But the extraordinary maintenance and repair season is finally wrapping up, and as of today output is back above 2016 levels.  This represents an important loss of incremental demand for natural gas at a time when it is struggling in the power sector against low aggregate demand, mild weather, renewables, and cost competition against coal.