Saturday, February 25, 2017

Why is the Natural Gas Forward Strip Price Cheap and Getting Cheaper?

Even though it seems impossible that our government could issue such a forecast, here is the February Short Term Energy Forecast for Natural Gas Marketed Production.  It projects that just 22 months from now, production will rise from 76.9 BCFD to 85 BCFD.  That seems far fetched, but it may not be far from consensus.  If this prevails, we will see low $2 gas in all likelihood.  But I don't consider it likely that we will hit these production milestones.  

Anything close to these output levels will devastate the gas market.  There is no outlet for this gas beyond slight upticks in LNG capacity, and a mild, 1 BCFD increase in pipeline exports to Mexico.

However, the EIA has made large downward revisions recently to it's forecasts.  Here is the same forecast shown above, but with the same actual/forecast estimates from Aug '16 (6 months ago).  The Feb '17 production forecast has dropped by 3.2 BCFD!