Thursday, April 20, 2017

Natural Gas Inventory Builds Too Much

Today's natural gas inventory build of +54 BCF was above expectations, but gas didn't sell off too much, just down 2-4 cents.  

Inventories are high, but production has been stubbornly low.  Everyone is awaiting an expected surge in output, but projections continue to be revised lower, or rather 'later'.  

Exports have been price supportive, and imports from Canada, though high, are at the expense of Canadian storage inventories so it can't go on indefinitely.  

Losses of power burn market share to coal have been in line with consensus expectations, on the order of 3 BCFD so far this shoulder season.  Gas demand has been severely hurt by western hydro output, but helped by nuclear outages, both of which should persist for months (hydro more so).