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Monday, May 20, 2019

Cooling Loads Rising in Early Summer

A minor heat wave this week should begin to indicate how the increase in base load gas fired generation will translate into summer NG demand.  Most forecasts are for power generation demand to exceed 40 BCFD in July and August.  EIA is currently at 41:



Weather has been near average since April 1, but CDD's are forecast to rise to around 130% of seasonal norms this week, and the first real heat of the year:

The NCEP historicals and 7 day forecast:


Overall electrical loads have been very low up to now, though gas market share has been up in most regions.  Spot prices are up slightly, but comparable to 2018: