Now, with strip prices back above $3 (but HH Spot lagging at the moment), will we see a reversal back to coal domination?
Here are two angles on the question. The first is the demand adjusted scatter plot, which is indicating that gas is within about 5% of the thermal power market share it held last March, when gas prices were below $2.
The second shows the daily market share of thermal power generation since last November. Gas was at a 40% market share vs coal back in early November, and then dropped as low as 25% around New Year's Day. It started rising steadily at the beginning of February, and was near last year's levels, around 40%, by March. It's been maintaining a high 30's share, clocking 38.4% yesterday.
As higher strip prices translating into the spot market, shouldn't we see gas lose marketshare?