Thursday, March 9, 2017

ERCOT Reports February Generation Fuel Mix

ERCOT released their Demand and Energy Report for February 2017 today, and the results are both expected and alarming.  Total generation was off about 2.6% from last Feb, likely due to weather.

My focus was on two things:

Wind power generation....capacity is up from 2016, and the capacity factor seems to be up even more (next gen windmills, better siting?).  In any case, wind generation was up 19.4% over last Feb, from about 6.7 GW average, to 8 GW.  The difference is even larger in March to date.

Market share of thermal was 60.9% this Feb, vs 64.4% last Feb...down on lower total load and losses to wind.

Natural gas market share of thermal was 50.7% this Feb vs 67.1% last Feb.  Gas was much more expensive this year.  Falling prices in March should improve this a bit, but last March, gas took a whopping 79.3% of the thermal power market.