Monday, February 3, 2014

EIA Natural Gas Monthly - November Demand

Friday's release of November monthly data in the EIA Natural Gas Monthly showed some strength in demand by sector.  The second table quantifies weather impact on heating demand.

Note the strength in industrial demand, which rose about 1.3 BCFD year on year in November.

Natural Gas used for electricity generation was up 0.62 BCFD or +3.2%, compared with total electricity output which rose from 306 KGWh to 313.8, a +2.5% increase, vs NOV '13.

Looking at weather impact on heating demand, here are the last three Novembers as gas demand for Residential & Commercial compares to weather.  Gas Weighted HDDs were greater this year than the previous two, which clearly had an impact on gas demand, but does it explain the entire +2.4 BCFD?  It seems to explain about 2 BCFD, using historical relationships.  More heating demand per degree day would most likely indicate that residential customers continue to switch away from oil and other legacy fuels, as well as new construction being primarily gas heated.