Western Canada ended the winter around 200 BCF below the historical average in storage. For storage to rebuild to normal levels by November, daily injections will need to exceed the average by 0.8 to 1.2 BCF per day. But one month into injection season, the daily average is about the same as last year. With about six months remaining, the daily injections should begin increasing soon. The consequence will be falling exports to the US.
It should also be noted that Alberta production is running about 250 MMCFD higher than 2013, probably due to the sustained increase in active gas drilling rigs over the last year, a trend which continues today.
TransCanada Alberta Storage and Field Receipts
Alberta gas rig counts are down seasonally this month but well above prior years: