The strong production trend in western Canada has not helped rebuild storage deficits thus far in shoulder season. The production has been moving east and south, leaving Alberta with a growing deficit to the historical norm. Since April, NOVA (Alberta) has only injected 36 BCF back into storage, less than last year at this time (42 BCF injected), leaving storage more than 200 BCF below normal. It is very unlikely that exports will be maintained at these elevated levels for many more days.
TransCanada Alberta Storage and Field Receipts
Daily storage injections need to rise above 1 BCF consistently, but they've been below that so far:
Production has been strong,averaging more than 200 MMCFD above last year, though expected to fall seasonally.
Alberta natural gas rig counts continue their strong trend, and should begin their seasonal recovery right about now.
