Monday, January 2, 2017

Extent of Natural Gas Market Share Losses to Coal in Electricity Generation

Here is the ongoing story of the (presumably price driven) loss of market share by natural gas in the power generation market, by the example of the MISO power region.  MISO represents 15-20% of the total national generation and load.

Coincident with the sharp rise in natural gas prices, gas began losing share to coal in mid-November of this year.  Low overall load will accentuate this trend to an extent, but the trend is visible through periods of both low and high load.  The lowest gas share of all came yesterday (Jan 1), with gas taking just 15.2% of the carbon fuel power market, to coal's 84.8%.  This compares to last year where the January gas share was near 35%.

In terms of absolute fuel volumes, we see the huge change.  Gas is now almost 2 BCFD behind last year, while coal is holding it's own: