Monday, January 2, 2017

Weather Forecast: Cold Blast But Overall Average

December finished with average cold (872 HDD's vs 859 Average), and the outlook for the first half of January is for average weather as well, despite a 6 day period of intense cold beginning on Jan 4.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center shows the cold in its 7 day forecast, after a mild 3 day period, which would take Gas Weighted HDD's to 252 through January 8th, against a 240 HDD historical average.

The Energy Metro Desk forecast based on the GFS shows a 15 day outlook with a 6 day cold period starting January 4th, then mostly below average heating demand in the latter portion (more volatile) of the forecast.  These last 5 days have been flipping hot/cold/hot in the last few model runs: