Here's another way of looking at the coal switching scenario in MISO. It compares the Gas/Coal split at various thermal generation demand levels in December 2016 and December 2015.
To wit, on a day when total demand for thermal generation was about 12 BCFE, gas would garner about 36% of that generation last December, and about 28% this year. If you like, that's about 4.3 BCF last year, and about 3.3 BCF this year, a clean 1 BCFD loss of marketshare on an average(ish) day.
Here's a glance at daily generation, this year and last, over NOV-JAN period in MISO.
And the point is?
Any talk of gas in the $4 range is also talk of massive demand destruction from power burn.
