Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Gas Losing Markeshare To Coal, Quantified

Here's another way of looking at the coal switching scenario in MISO.  It compares the Gas/Coal split at various thermal generation demand levels in December 2016 and December 2015.

To wit, on a day when total demand for thermal generation was about 12 BCFE, gas would garner about 36% of that generation last December, and about 28% this year.  If you like, that's about 4.3 BCF last year, and about 3.3 BCF this year, a clean 1 BCFD loss of marketshare on an average(ish) day.  

Here's a glance at daily generation, this year and last, over NOV-JAN period in MISO.

And the point is?

Any talk of gas in the $4 range is also talk of massive demand destruction from power burn.