Sunday, December 25, 2016

Gas to Coal Switching: MISO Region Shows Continued Loss of Natural Gas Market Share

Natural gas is losing ground to coal in the midwest.  In the MISO region, gas had 35-40% of carbon fuel power generation market in early November, and coal the remaining 60-65%.  In mid December, that 35-40% has fallen into the 20%'s, despite much higher system load than last year.  And in 2015, gas market share was rising into December, from about 30% (Nov '15) to 35-40% in December.

Here is the daily load profile for both years, showing that the current month is averaging 1,762 GWHD, against last year's December average of 1,641.

Gas and coal fired daily averages are shown below.  In December, gas output is down from 425.6 to 382.3 GWHD, while coal is up from 749.7 to 888.9 GWHD.

On a BCFE basis, here is the same output:

And the year on year comparisons, by day, for both gas and coal in NOV-DEC: