Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Weather Related Electricity Demand

When comparing this winter to last winter, and to normal winter, gas utility demand is not the full story.  A normal winter this year will generate significantly more electric power demand, which will help offset the market share that gas gives up to coal.  Here's a look at Jan-Feb in the ERCOT region.  It is a scatter plot of 2015 vs 2016.  The poly line equation is similar, but 2016 didn't have any cold days, only 1 above 25 HDDs so it's a shorter, flatter line.  

These two periods differ by an average of 4.5 HDDs daily, which is this case equates to an incremental 2.6 GW of average load.  That has a gas replacement value of about 0.6 BCFD.  That's significant across the CONUS, and would have a big impact on power burn this year if weather approximated normal.