Thursday, March 6, 2014

Louisiana Haynesville Gas Production

December natural gas output from the Louisiana Haynesville Parishes is not quite completely reported yet, so expect small upward revisions over the next three weeks.  As it stands now, the decline in daily output from November to December 2013 was 130 MMCFD, or about 3%.  It is possible that revisions may raise this to the November level or above, as some pipeline maintenance was ongoing during this period.  
We should see output much flatter in 2014, as the rig count has been steady at a low level (near 20 rigs) for a year and a half, and in fact a few rigs are expected to return this year.  The output is worth watching because national gas output was rising quickly over the past two years in spite of a massive decline in the Haynesville of 3 BCFD (on the LA side of the border only).  Production should not fall by another 1BCFD in 2014, and may even hold steady.  

Similar math is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico, where a steep multi-year decline has been arrested.